El Niño Is Back in 2026: Here's How We're Rethinking Kids Winter Gear

Just because it's on the shelves doesn't mean it's practical for the weather patterns we're actually experiencing in our region - looking at you Costco. 

One thing I’m really passionate about is ensuring that you have the information you need to make the best choice for your family. I truly believe that too many of us are shopping without the right knowledge to make good choices. That’s to the brands benefit - they want us to buy all the things. But that’s not who we are. We want you to ensure that you have a good informed choice. 

This morning I caught the news from early in July that national weather and climate agencies are predicting a strong El Niño this year, and I've been thinking about it ever since.

 I truly believe a lot of us have had bad winters not because we didn't have the right gear, but because we bought based on what worked in the past instead of what we're actually experiencing right now. It’s time to get real that climate is changing and our buying habits need to follow suit. 

First, what is El Niño anyway?

El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. It's marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Last year was a La Niña. The last El Niño was the winter of 2023/24.

And this one's shaping up to be a big one. NOAA is reporting an 81% chance of a "very strong" El Niño between October and December this year:  ranking among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. As the Earth warms we should continue to expect these changes to keep being record breaking.

So: think back to the winter of 2023. That's roughly the vibe we should be preparing for  and if you want to sanity-check that, it's worth pulling up your own memory (or photos, or receipts) from that winter specifically, rather than just "last year" in general. I have a ton of pictures of my daughter overdressed in snowgear on perfectly dry streets, of my kids biking in December, and the lack of snow everywhere. 

Previous El Niño years are your best reference point here, not the last few winters overall.

A snowsuit might not be your best first choice

Now, to be clear: we ordered a record number of kids snowsuits this year, and I'm not telling anyone to skip them entirely. If your family spends a lot of time on the slopes or in the backcountry, you'll still love and need a proper snowsuit. That deep, dry cold is exactly what they're built for.

But if you're a Prince George or Northern BC family planning ahead for daycare and city living, here's my honest thinking: a snowsuit probably shouldn't be the first thing you reach for this winter. So before you pick up that $80 snowsuit set at Costco, consider if it’s going to actually give your kids a comfortable winter experience or sit new with tags until another winter. 

Many snowsuits are water resistant, not waterproof — they're built for dry cold. Once that insulation gets wet, it takes forever to dry, unlike rain suit layers, which are designed to dry faster. Even our waterproof snowsuits can make kids too warm, and then you're dealing with sweat, which is just as much of a problem as snow. I think this is exactly why some daycares are now asking for two snowsuits — the first one gets wet on a warmer day and never fully dries before pickup.

Invest in layers as your first line of defense

A rain suit can be layered up for cold days. A snowsuit can't be layered down for wet ones. That's why layers make sense as the thing you reach for most days:  with the snowsuit still in the closet for when you actually need it… or maybe not, because really don’t buy gear for winter weather you don’t play in.

This is the part that's genuinely frustrating as a retailer: stores order gear based on historical records, while historical weather events are happening in real time. It sucks. We can't always have exactly what you need on the shelf in the moment you need it, because we ordered it eight months ago based on last year's patterns.

My move this year: fleece and wool base layers, plus a solid waterproof rain suit. That combination handles a much wider range of conditions than a single snowsuit ever will.

Since I bought the business, I’ve been advocating for lined rainsuits as a quintessential base layer for those of you living life in the first ten degrees around zero. The fleece lined suits from Jan & Jul, or even some of the rain/outerwear suits from Reima can make a great starting base for most active kids. 

Buy all the rain mittens and gloves

Depending on the style, these come with waterproof inserts and seamed seals, and are fleece lined, wool lined, or unlined. They're your mid-season MVP:  the piece that bridges the gap between "just a jacket" weather and "full snowsuit" weather.

We’ve continued to bring in more and more waterproof mittens and gloves from your favourite european brands that are creating exceptional products that are so much better than a snow glove. Heck, snow gloves are seriously disappointing when you start to experience seamed seals and wool linings. 

Focus on breathable, waterproof boots

Think thermal-lined rain boots, waterproof ankle booties, or galosh-style winter boots:  a rubber lower shell with an insulated shaft. It’s why we’ve kick started the season with the Wheat Kids Thermal Winter Boot Drizzle with more styles to come. 

Here's the thing a lot of people don't realize: many deep-cold winter boots aren't actually designed to be waterproof. They're built for dry, cold snow,  not the slushy, wet-then-frozen mess we tend to get here.

But we still have one wild card: the polar vortex

A stratospheric vortex influences how the polar jet stream behaves down in the troposphere. Extra heat can trigger large-scale atmospheric waves that disrupt that band of westerly winds circling the North Pole  and when that happens, cold air can spill south fast, even during an otherwise mild, El Niño–driven winter. It's the wild card that keeps climate scientists (and boutique owners trying to buy gear eight months in advance) humble.

That said : climate is an ever-evolving study

Things can deviate from the norm quickly, and the unknown could happen. But it's still easier to layer a rain suit for a few cold days than to buy expensive snow gear you use only a handful of times... and I say that as a retailer who ordered a record number of snowsuits for 2026/27. Trends and forecasts help us plan, but they don't guarantee anything.

So what am I actually buying my kids?

• New fleece sweaters

• Checking if last year's jackets and snowsuits still fit before buying anything new

• Mid-season waterproof ankle booties — my kids are at the very end of kids' sizing for these, so I'll likely be shopping the adult aisle

For daycare kids specifically, I'd genuinely recommend a lined waterproof rain suit, fleece layers, and rain mittens or gloves over a snowsuit. I know daycares don't love to see me coming with this advice, but you can't put kids in snowsuits all winter and then get frustrated that everyone's wet and cold by 10am. Most insulated rain suits handle temperatures down to about -5°C just fine.

For your early non-walkers, I'm keeping an eye on options from smaller brands making booties for that age group, and I'll still be cheering on the Reima Antura waterproof fleece-lined bootie because  it has a better shape than some of the competitors and performed fantastically for us last year. Find out more about why boot suck for babies.

One more thing

Much can still change, and honestly, I ordered my own kids winter and mid-season outerwear and gear for the shop’s collection last year forgetting just how wild these climate patterns can swing. So take all of this as a starting point, not a guarantee.

Nest & Sprout is located in Prince George, BC, and everything above reflects a central BC experience. We are a premiere boutique in kids outerwear for sizes up to a 12/14Y, with both new and used options. 

Climate patterns can look very different depending on where you live. Take a look at the historical data for your own area, pay attention to what the current weather science is telling us, and build your own local, lived-experience-based plan from there.